I miss the message boards. Not everything about them. The spam posts from some foreign country trying to get me to buy fake Gucci bags were annoying. Some of the things got out of hand over the years, like they do in many public forums. But it was also a great place to connect, read about ketchup and mustard running a race, and make predictions heading into meets and the season.
But mostly I miss the predictions. Those were fun to read. So many people with so many different opinions. And when you had the right prediction, man it was a ton of fun. And in a weird way, it was also fun to be very, very wrong. But I think one thing we all love about sports is trying to predict what will happen before it happens. This humble editor had a very fun lunch period the day after the super bowl when he had previously been raked over the coals by the entire period, which included multiple football coaches, for predicting the Eagles would beat the Chiefs 41-24 in the big game. So I wanted to take time before the season gets too busy to make some predictions about the state meet.
Keep in mind these predictions are mine, mine alone, and don't take into account anything we've seen so far this year. And that means I will make mistakes, please keep that in mind. Instead of getting mad at me for missing you in my prediction, go out and prove me wrong. If I do pick you, please prove me right! If there is a big enough oversight, I'm willing to edit my predictions if you point it out to me - milesplitga@gmail.com.
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So, without further ado, here are my predictions for the podium in each classification and a brief explanation about each:
1A Division 1 Boys
1. Bleckley county
2. Armuchee
3. Oglethorpe County
4. Barrow Arts & Sciences
1. Jack Harrell
2. Rush Hatcher
3. Harrison Rogers
4. Drake Ballard
5. Alex Everett
6. Sora Suzuki
7. Tanner Miller
8. John Adams
9. Ryder Garrett
10. Reid Nalder
Bleckley is kind of an easy choice given recent history, but it's by no means a slam dunk. They need to keep doing what they've been doing and I expect they'll be fine. I see the other 3 as on even enough ground that I kind of just picked an order, but I'm by no means married to it and could see it going either way. Individually I see Harrell as the favorite, but I could see Hatcher taking this personally and going out there and proving me wrong.
1A Division 1 Girls
1. Bleckley County
2. Fannin County
3. Bremen
4. Armuchee
1. Ella Gibbs
2. Ansley Moore
3. Lily Farrell
4. Natalie Kitchens
5. Karli Sams
6. Alishia Cook
7. Sarah Schabort
8. Hannah Erickson
9. Anna Lynch
10. Claira Lynch
The most interesting story here is what will happen with the top 3 girls individually. Last year we almost saw Gibbs get upset by her teammate and then Moore delivered the upset in track season. But Gibbs is at her best in XC season so I trust her enough to get the job done yet again. But I wouldn't be surprised at all in any of those 3 girls was on the top of the podium. As a team there's no way I'm betting against Bleckey here.
1A Division 2 Boys
1. Atlanta Classical
2. Atkinson County
3. Baconton Charter
4. Furlow Charter
1. Ian Burke
2. Jack Kalmanowicz
3. Grady Meier
4. Sanders Hearne
5. Ibis Gonzalez
6. Corbin Suggs
7. Anthony Escalante
8. Dan Williams
9. Esau Rodriguez
10. Austin Velazquez
If Atkinson shows up with the superman socks again, they might end up being my prediction on the day. But overall I like what I see out of Atlanta Classical recently. Individually I just like what I see from Burke, but Kalmanowicz will not go down without a fight.
1A Division 2 Girls
1. Atlanta Classical
2. Furlow Charter
3. Lake Oconee Academy
4. Georgia Military Prep
1. Averi Lowen
2. Savannah Arnett
3. Brooke Crickard
4. Vera Carter
5. Margaret Adams
6. Adileigh Rountree
7. Mary Elizabeth Kirkland
8. Dileta Hunlen
9. Elena Viscarra
10. Sylvia Brown
Lowen is one of the easiest picks to win in a while, as long as she stays healthy this year. After that I feel good about my first few picks and feel less good about the rest of the them. Individually I have confidence in the programs that Atlanta Classical and Furlow charter have, and I trust them to get the job done.
2A Boys
1. KIPP Atlanta
2. Savannah Arts
3. Rockmart
4. Columbus
1. Evan Osias
2. Will Gipson
3. Cade Brown
4. Nasir January
5. Mathew Lopez
6. Nolan Brown
7. Aven Cameron
8. Noah Coleman
9. Josiah Owens
10. Colin Ramsey
This team battle was tough to predict. It's kind of wide open and it wouldn't surprise me at all if a team I didn't even mention, like defending champions East Jackson, takes this thing. But for now at least I'll give credit to a rising KIPP program and give them a VERY slight nod to get it done this year. Individually this is a two horse race, but I'll give the nod to our defending champion who shocked us all last year with his impressive win. He won't have the element of surprise this year though and Gipson will definitely be looking to learn from last year. This should be a great race.
2A Girls
1. Savannah Arts
2. Columbus
3. Union County
4. East Jackson
1. Francie Tedder
2. Anna Griffin
3. Olivia DiQuattro
4. Lola Hunter
5. Ava Treece
6. McKay Bennett
7. Megan Hightower
8. Bella Pearson
9. Gabby Ware
10. Savannah Jackson
Let's just run this one back on the team podium side of things. I could see some slight movement, but overall I feel pretty good about these four being the podium teams in an order that's at least close to this. The individual side is harder to predict. DiQuattro looks like a lock if you only look at XC times from last year, but when you bring track into the mix it's definitely harder to predict. I'll go with Tedder for now, but this is one of those picks I need to wait and see how things shake out before I feel confident heading into state.
3A Boys
1. Oconee County
2. North Hall
3. Jefferson
4. Whitewater
1. Aaron Brodrick
2. Witt Windham
3. Finn Wakeman
4. Eli Beall
5. Austin Chrouch
6. William Malueg
7. Demetrius Clavino
8. Samuel Hostetter
9. Max Young
10. Noah Dixon
By every available metric, Oconee is a clear #1 and North Hall is a clear #2. After that it opens up a little bit, but nobody is so far gone that 1 big jump, or one injury, couldn't change things this year. Individually I'll stick with Brodrick to take home his 2nd XC title complete a rare circle of winning freshman year and senior year titles. But Windham, whose brother took the win last year, is lurking and should not be taken lightly.
3A Girls
1. Oconee County
2. North Hall
3. Dawson County
4. Mary Persons
1. Summer Muxlow
2. Reagan Gilmore
3. Carly Black
4. Evie Robison
5. Keli George
6. Kaela Kearney
7. Hayden Hand
8. Annabelle Wiktorski
9. Mary Jo Wood
10. Aydriana Jackson
Yet another one where it wouldn't surprise me to see any of the podium teams take home the title. But I like what Oconee has done recently and what their history says they will do. So I'll give them the nod for now. Individually Muxlow is the clear favorite, but she's not so far clear that somebody else can't challenge her. But until someone comes out and shows something this fall, she remains at the top of my list.
1A-3A Private Boys
1. Trinity Christian
2. Whitefield
3. Athens Academy
4. Lovett
1. Haris Flynn
2. Landon Jonas
3. Anderson Mathias
4. Samuel Wood
5. Bo Mitchell
6. Gavin Quinn
7. Javier Silva
8. Christian McMurry
9. Tyler Ebbert
10. Eli Floyd
A bold pick, perhaps. But they've been coming and I really like what Trinity Christian did in the spring so I'll predict the upset here. And then Whitefield might make me look stupid when it's all said and done. But that's what makes the exercise fun, right? Individually I know Flynn isn't perfect. But I think he's got the most potential and a killer kick that he's gonna be hard for anybody in this classification to run away from. When that's the case, you bet on the kid with the killer kick. After him, who knows. There's like 6-7 guys who could reasonably make a case at runner up.
1A-3A Private Girls
1. Wesleyan
2. Lovett
3. Hebron Christian
4. Paideia
1. Morgan Huggins
2. Weezie Moore
3. Margaret Moore
4. Cora Fannin
5. Kate Sullivan
6. Eloise Jones
7. Caroline Struby
8. Ellie Plunkett
9. Lydia Amick
10. Naomi Watson
I just can't find any way to pick against Wesleyan who have the firepower up front and the depth. Anything can happen in this sport, but I feel good about their chances to repeat. Individually I feel good about my top 3 picks but after that I don't feel good at all. I think those girls will most likely finish in a different order than the one I have listed, but I had to put down something, right?
4A Boys
1. Starrs Mill
2. Jones County
3. Westminster
4. Pace
1. Jacob Jacquot
2. Cameron Collier
3. Nate Pacetti
4. Luke Thornton
5. Chase Griswold
6. Josh Wineland
7. Kristopher Strong
8. Cole Minnich
9. Iliyan Hajiani
10. Everett Sanders
This team race is flat out impossible to predict. It's that close and I will not own this one whether I'm right or wrong. It's way too early to tell and it's also very possible the team champion is not one of the four teams listed. But I do like the combination of XC and track that both Starrs Mill and Jones County have going for them. And I can't put my finger on why, exactly, but I believe in both of them this year. Individually I see this as a two person race with everybody else on the list being on the outside looking in. Collier almost pulled off a monster upset this spring so you gotta believe that he's got a shot here. But I see him as a bigger threat in track season and Jacquot as the better XC runner. So I'll give the very slight edge to him on this one. But it's close folks.
4A Girls
1. Harris County
2. Marist
3. Starrs Mill
4. St. Pius X
1. Effie Ward
2. Ella Alberici
3. Harriet Blaha
4. Caroline DeButts
5. Addison Robinson
6. Grace Danser
7. Addie Locker
8. Olivia Martin
9. Morgan Waddell
10. Madsen Smith
Harris County has been coming along for a few years now and I think this is the season they finally break through after a very solid runner up finish last year. There are about 7-8 teams who could all lay claim to being a threat for the podium, so I'm not very confident about my picks after the first two. Individually this thing is very interesting. Ward got her first 4A state title this spring and I do see her as the favorite to get it done in XC since that's her stronger sport anyway. But she's not untouchable and honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the girls on this list win the race overall if she shows any kind of weakness. It's that kind of year in 4A this year and there's probably a girl or two I left off this list who could show up and take the win too. It's going to be crazy.
5A Boys
1. Clarke Central
2. Creekview
3. Pope
4. Milton
1. Malachi Burnett
2. James Daniel
3. Jackson Hunter
4. Alex Ballance
5. Alex Loffredio
6. Andrew Bitsko
7. Waylon Vaughn
8. Everett Lawder
9. Rowen Maloney
10. Jackson McLaughlin
On paper, Creekview is the team to beat. But it's close. And I'm picking Clarke Central because they've come so close for a few years now and I think the hunger puts them over the edge in a tight race. They likely want it more than anybody because of how hard it's been coming so close for a while, now. It's just a feeling I have, even though the data tells me to pick Creekview. Individually Burnett should take the crown again this year, but it's a pretty loaded lineup behind him and a few of them took him down this spring. 2-6 are all very talented runners that are all worth considering as the biggest challenger to Burnett.
5A Girls
1. Pope
2. McIntosh
3. Milton
4. Creekview
1. Josie Hutchinson
2. Liliana Beemer
3. Ella Williams
4. Aislynn Dunn
5. Emily McDonald
6. Olivia Sawyer
7. Chloe Adkins
8. Amaya Nebel
9. Caroline Spain
10. Chloe Cummings
Pope is the obvious choice here after last year but things get interesting behind them. I could see a few teams challenge McIntosh for that 2nd spot. But individually this thing could be viewed through a number of lenses and you could make a really strong case for a few girls to take home the win. Ultimately I'll stick with our defending champion who has the largest body of work and has shown she's clutch. But I'm not counting out any of those 3-4 girls behind her on my list.
6A Boys
1. West Forsyth
2. Brookwood
3. North Gwinnett
4. Harrison
1. Jameson Pifer
2. Riley Comstock
3. Clint Huggins
4. Haydn Hermansen
5. Dash Brackin
6. Austin Jugenheimer
7. Mason James
8. Jacob Grant
9. Eddie Howell
10. Lucas Fortenberry
This team race is tough to call, but I think West Forsyth has the slight advantage pretty much any way you look at it on paper. We of course don't run the race on paper, and that's why it's very hard to predict who the 2nd best team is on paper too. I've looked at it from a few different ways, and I'll give a slight nod to Brookwood here. But here's the thing, there are at least two teams not on my list (Denmark and Carrollton) who I wouldn't be surprised to not only see on the podium, but also winning the entire thing. So while I see West as the slight favorite no matter what metric you use, there are at least 6 teams who have a shot here. And in a crowded field like what we get in 6A, anything can happen there. But that's also why it helps to have such a tight 1-5 pack like what West has. Individually I'm making a few guesses based on hunches I have and history. But we all know there are always like 25 guys with a shot at the podium in 6A. So obviously there's some contenders left off this list. But at the top I see Pifer as the favorite and as long as he doesn't have an off day, he should be your champion based on his strength and speed. After that...who knows. I'm banking on Comstock stepping up to another level this year, but the real wild card in this bunch is Dash Brackin. He could win the race or he could finish outside the top 10, we have no idea with him. Guys like Huggins and Hermansen are fairly proven so I feel good about picking them up there. The rest of the group all have a solid track record, but just like with the team battler it's gonna be crowded and that usually means a few guys have an off day. It's gonna be an exciting season!
6A Girls
1. Walton
2. Marietta
3. North Gwinnett
4. Harrison
1. Mary Nesmith
2. Paige Comstock
3. Mallory Old
4. Alyssa Trevino
5. Kennedy Wardle
6. Lidia Lo Faro
7. Harper Stephens
8. Jasmine Jones
9. Kat Creasman
10. Emily Autry
Is it a bad idea to pick against Marietta? Probably. But there's just something about Walton that I feel like has the edge here and will take down their Cobb County rival. It's close enough that really any of these teams could win, and teams like West Forsyth and Mill Creek are close enough that all it would take is one of them hitting the freshman lottery to push them to the top of the rankings. So we will see how things play out. I'm pleased there's no slam dunk here, it makes the season more interesting. Individually I think we all probably have the exact same picks at top 2 and most of us have the same 5 girls in the top 5 in some order. After that it gets a little tricky, but most of these girls are proven on several levels and I feel pretty good that at least 8 of them will finish in the top ten if not all of them. There are likely a few other girls who will be in the mix, but that's a strong group to crack into right there.