Olivia Resnick and Pace will try to defend their title in class 4A girls

Girls Individual

There's probably not going to be much drama for our individual champion. Defending champion Zahara Bernal has looked very good all season and even though she hasn't been perfect, it's unlikely anybody in this classification takes her down. I'll be very interested to see how she approaches this one. I'm sure she's got her eyes set on bigger goals in the post season, and I'd love to see her pursue both Nike and Footlocker nationals. But she technically has to take care of business here first. And considering how smart she usually runs her races, I wonder if she will try to establish herself as the early leader or sit back in the pack the first loop. I see pros and cons to both approaches, so I'm excited to see which one she picks on Saturday.

Behind Bernal is where the action gets really exciting. And there are some serious team implications that will transpire in the top 10 of this thing. Ella Alberici is the wild card here, and probably the favorite for 2nd place. But what's most important is the fact that she doesn't have anything to lose from a team perspective like the rest of the girls in this race. So she can run a little bit more fearless and that could add an element of surprise here. And the girls will have to decide how to respond to her moves, will they think about themselves first or the team first? After this it's just a bunch of girls who will be doing everything they can to help their team win. Effie Ward returned at sectionals and looked great in doing so. She could be a big player in this race as she looks to lead her team. Olivia Resnick also has a really important job to do and her team will be counting on her to get as few points as possible. That kind of pressure brings out the best in people sometimes, so we will see how she handles it. Regina Michel Camacho is the other big name here that will be looking to do big things early for her team. She's looked the part all season long and I expect a big race from her here. Honestly, I don't have time or space in the article to give details about every other girl here who has a shot at the top 5 or top 10. And I definitely don't want to slight anybody here. So here's a nice list to choose from, any of these girls could find themselves in the top 10 or even top 5 on Saturday: Maeve Waddell, Sofia Burns, Harriet Blaha, Lauren Skeens, Grace Danser, Lucy Johnson, London Ray, Addison Robinson, and Mary Perrin Carpenter.

Prediction from Anonymous coach
1. Bernal
2. Camacho
3. Ward
4. Alberici
5. Resnick

Girls Team

Ok, we finally get to talk about the team races. First of all, I would like to point out that because there are so many girls in the preview article listed who are all very close to each other, it's important to remember than one really good race or one really bad race could turn this race upside down. Ok, I got my caveat out of the way. This race is wide open. I legitimately see 7 teams who could not only end up on the podium, but it's possible that any of these 7 teams could actually WIN this race. I can't remember the last time I've seen that. Maybe the 6A boys race in 2020? That race saw the 6th or 7th ranked team pull off the win and it's certainly possible we could see the same thing here.

On paper, Marist and Pace Academy look the part. They've been strong all season and both teams have the firepower to get the job done. But there are also question marks about each team and I think it's too early to say definitively that one of them will win this thing. In fact, I would say neither of them are the favorites for Saturday. Harris Co. looked amazing at sectionals. And I know that sectionals isn't state. But those girls took it to everybody right from the gun and never looked back. If they do that again on Saturday, I could absolutely see them hoisting their first every state champion trophy.  One of my favorite sayings is that "everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth" and Harris County could be the ones doing the punching. But like I said, there are 4 other teams who could find themselves in the mix on Saturday. I think that after those top 3 teams there might be a small gap, but it's a small enough gap that none of these 4 teams can be written off. You've got Northview, St. Pius X, Blessed Trinity, and Westminster who are all good enough to find their way to the podium, and good enough to threaten any of the top 3 teams as well. And I think establishing yourself early will be key with this many teams in contention. You just can't mess around, that might be a recipe for disaster.

Prediction from anonymous coach:
1. Pace
2. Marist
3. Harris County
4. St. Pius X

Boys Individual

Nobody is picking against Tommy Latham, right? Even last year when he wasn't at his best at state, he still got the job done. And then went on to have one of the best post seasons by a Georgia junior boy ever. And we've already discussed the fact that he's accomplished the greatest feat in Georgia boy distance running ever, and will hopefully be the first Georgia high school boy to break 4:00 in the mile this spring. So we will have plenty of time to discuss him in the postseason as he pursues a national championship. For now let's focus on the race behind him.

I....do not know who to pick here. Obviously Marist would like to go 1-2-3 in this race, and it's definitely possible for them to do that. Andrew Stricklin and Liam Hanemann are both strong enough runners that we could see Marist pull off the sweep and give themselves a huge jump start on the team title. But they won't be alone. Jacob Jacquot is here to compete. And like I've said before, it's hard to top good genetics, something he definitely has. So if he's anything like his brother, he will have a monster day at state. We've also got Loden Kohrman who ran by his coaches a little before the two mile at Coach Wood and yelled to them that he was still feeling good. I don't know how that's possible when you're running that fast. But he said that was the case. So I have no reason to doubt him. If he's feeling that good again on Saturday you could see him finish this thing as runner up. I do think we've got a little bit of a gap after this group of four, but you never know what will happen at state. Also fighting for a top 10 spot or more would be Nate Pacetti, Luke Thornton, Cameron Collier, Bankson Roach, Yan Berezitsky, and Gray Peterson. And there's one other runner who is worth mentioning. At this point I'm going to consider him a wild card. But I don't know what it is, exactly, I just have a gut feeling that Kristopher Strong is going to show up and shock some people on Saturday. I think he's got the talent for it, and has kind of flown under the radar this season. So I wanted to add a special note for him here. 

Prediction from Anonymous coach
1. Latham
2. Stricklin
3. Strong
4. Hanemann
5. Kohrman

Boys Team

And last, but definitely not least, the boys team race. This thing is going to be crazy exciting on Saturday. We've got a similar situation to the girls race where I count at least 5 teams who have a shot at the win here and at least 6 teams who have a shot at the podium. Cambridge has certainly looked the part all season long. That pack is just deadly, and they'll be tough to beat. But will the math work out in their favor if Marist goes 1-2-3 in this thing? I'm not sure. I think it'll probably come down to those two teams, but you never know. Jones County and Starrs Mill are both right there with a shot at this thing. And both of those teams had a monster performance early on in the season that showed they're capable of winning. When the talent is there, all it takes is the right mindset to put it together on race day. You've also got Pace Academy and Westminster who both have the talent to compete and throw themselves in the mix. Could they possibly show up and punch somebody in the mouth and take this thing? It wouldn't shock me. What's so fun about 4A boys this year is that you have so many programs who are historically good all competing in the same race for the first time ever. Some of these teams haven't raced each other at state in decades. And then they're up against teams who are having their best season ever. It's just going to be a thrilling race and it'll be exiting to see what happens when the dust settles.

Prediction from Anonymous Coach
1. Cambridge
2. Marist
3. Jones County
4. Starrs Mill