Cross Country season starts this weekend, so now is a good time to look into who the top contenders of each classification are coming into the season. This article will just take a look at the individual battles but if you're interested in what the team battles look like on paper, check them out:
But now let's shift our focus to the individual races, where below we will take a look at the main contenders on the boys and girls side in a classification that is always competitive.
How Tight Is This Race?
Each athlete's season best shown on one scale. Tap or hover a dot.
Just 57 secs separates the field
15:48
16:44
15:20
15:30
15:40
15:50
16:00
16:10
16:20
16:30
16:40
16:50
17:00
17:10
the leader
15:47.58 · Cole Minnich
+2 secs from leader
15:49.56 · Chase Griswold
+9 secs from leader
15:57.01 · Will Abbott
+10 secs from leader
15:57.41 · Evan Craig
+11 secs from leader
15:58.84 · Luke Lorenzo
+35 secs from leader
16:22.40 · Charlie Woodward
+45 secs from leader
16:33.07 · Ethan Empie
+57 secs from leader
16:44.41 · Anthony Englund
Boys Race
I'm pretty sure it's impossible to declare a favorite in this race at this point. On the one hand Cole Minnich not only has the fastest returning PR, he ran a phenomenal race at the state meet last year, taking a strong 3rd place behind two seniors and distancing himself from all other returners. But on the other hand, he doesn't have a track season. And in his absence there were some that took over this spring and had big seasons. Will Abbott is the obvious leader here as he has the top 1600 and 3200 times among returners and he finished runner up at state in both events to a graduating senior. But I'm not ready to crown the "new kid on the block" either because we all know that experience pays off at Carrollton. And Chase Griswold has plenty of that. After going from 31st to 12th to 6th, it's very easy to see a path for him to take the win this year. Those would be the big 3, but anybody else on this graphic could get the win too. Evan Craig has an excellent combination of strength with a 15:57 in XC and speed with an 800 PR of 1:53. A kicker's race will certainly favor him. Luke Lorenzo doesn't have any times that truly stand out, but he's very consistent over all disciplines. Charlie Woodward and Ethan Empie both exploded this track season with big races. Anthony England is kind of that under the radar kid who doesn't seem to be on the same level as the others, but has shown the ability to pop off a big one on the right day, and if that day is November 6th, the others are in trouble. There's like...10-15 other guys in this classification who either broke 16:30 last year, broke 10:20 in the spring, or did both. Any of those guys could find themselves breaking into the top 10 or the top 5, but I've not yet seen anything on paper that suggests that any of them could contend for the win. So somebody who is not on this list taking it all this spring would be a really fun story to tell when it's all said and done. I'm not ruling it out, because I've seen it happen before. But I just don't think there's anything on paper that separates anybody else from the pack. If somebody does emerge, it'll be because they made a big jump.
How Tight Is This Race?
Each athlete's season best shown on one scale. Tap or hover a dot.
Just 83 secs separates the field
17:31
18:54
17:00
17:10
17:20
17:30
17:40
17:50
18:00
18:10
18:20
18:30
18:40
18:50
19:00
19:10
19:20
19:30
the leader
17:30.69 · Liliana Beemer
+8 secs from leader
17:38.52 · Ella Alberici
+13 secs from leader
17:43.36 · Melanie Anderson
+29 secs from leader
17:59.47 · Morgan Waddell
+71 secs from leader
18:41.84 · Rosemary Daumeyer
+80 secs from leader
18:50.90 · Olivia Martin
+82 secs from leader
18:52.69 · Emme Pacetti
+83 secs from leader
18:54.01 · Evelyn Ballew
Girls Race
This was an incredibly tight race last year when it was the 4A classification. The champion graduated, and yet somehow it got more competitive? How'd that happen? Well, Liliana Beemer has joined the mix this year from one classification higher, and she broke 19 at state last year in what was one of the best runner up finishes I've ever seen. She's also got the fastest PR's in the group, so you've gotta give her the slight nod at this point. But the other girls in this classification already went through a knock down drag out fight at the state meet last year. And the top returner from that bunch is Morgan Waddell, who also had the fastest 3200 PR this spring. She has improved consistently throughout high school, and if she made another jump this fall, then she could emerge as the favorite in November. Ella Alberici and Melanie Anderson technically have faster PR's, so there's reason to believe that one of them could come out on top when it's all said and done. So by most metrics these seem to be the top 4 and I would predict that the champion will come from this group based on the information we have at this point in time. But I'm not foolish enough to guarantee that. Somebody might make a big jump, somebody might have a fast freshman. We might get a muddy year at Carrollton throwing the whole race into chaos. Anything can happen in cross country which is why we all love it so much. If a contender is going to emerge it'll probably come from the other four girls listed above. But there are a couple of other intriguing names to watch as contenders as well. Lila Klein, Naomi Ward, and Adrina Swift are technically the 2nd runner on their team and have a favorite listed above. But they're all close enough that it wouldn't shock me to see them leapfrog their teammate and all of a sudden become the favorite for the win.
Cross Country season starts this weekend, so now is a good time to look into who the top contenders of each classification are coming into the season. This article will just take a look at the individual battles but if you're interested in what the team battles look like on paper, check them out:
But now let's shift our focus to the individual races, where below we will take a look at the main contenders on the boys and girls side in a classification that is always competitive.
How Tight Is This Race?
Each athlete's season best shown on one scale. Tap or hover a dot.
Just 57 secs separates the field
15:48
16:44
15:20
15:30
15:40
15:50
16:00
16:10
16:20
16:30
16:40
16:50
17:00
17:10
the leader
15:47.58 · Cole Minnich
+2 secs from leader
15:49.56 · Chase Griswold
+9 secs from leader
15:57.01 · Will Abbott
+10 secs from leader
15:57.41 · Evan Craig
+11 secs from leader
15:58.84 · Luke Lorenzo
+35 secs from leader
16:22.40 · Charlie Woodward
+45 secs from leader
16:33.07 · Ethan Empie
+57 secs from leader
16:44.41 · Anthony Englund
Boys Race
I'm pretty sure it's impossible to declare a favorite in this race at this point. On the one hand Cole Minnich not only has the fastest returning PR, he ran a phenomenal race at the state meet last year, taking a strong 3rd place behind two seniors and distancing himself from all other returners. But on the other hand, he doesn't have a track season. And in his absence there were some that took over this spring and had big seasons. Will Abbott is the obvious leader here as he has the top 1600 and 3200 times among returners and he finished runner up at state in both events to a graduating senior. But I'm not ready to crown the "new kid on the block" either because we all know that experience pays off at Carrollton. And Chase Griswold has plenty of that. After going from 31st to 12th to 6th, it's very easy to see a path for him to take the win this year. Those would be the big 3, but anybody else on this graphic could get the win too. Evan Craig has an excellent combination of strength with a 15:57 in XC and speed with an 800 PR of 1:53. A kicker's race will certainly favor him. Luke Lorenzo doesn't have any times that truly stand out, but he's very consistent over all disciplines. Charlie Woodward and Ethan Empie both exploded this track season with big races. Anthony England is kind of that under the radar kid who doesn't seem to be on the same level as the others, but has shown the ability to pop off a big one on the right day, and if that day is November 6th, the others are in trouble. There's like...10-15 other guys in this classification who either broke 16:30 last year, broke 10:20 in the spring, or did both. Any of those guys could find themselves breaking into the top 10 or the top 5, but I've not yet seen anything on paper that suggests that any of them could contend for the win. So somebody who is not on this list taking it all this spring would be a really fun story to tell when it's all said and done. I'm not ruling it out, because I've seen it happen before. But I just don't think there's anything on paper that separates anybody else from the pack. If somebody does emerge, it'll be because they made a big jump.