4A State Preview
Boys:
Team
On paper the race appears to be a two team race for the top spot between Lakeside-Evans and Marist. Lakeside-Evans has run great this year. They are ranked second all class, finished runner-up to Brookwood at Coach Wood, and beat Marist in the process, but 2011 looks like 2010 when Marist lost Coach Wood to Chapel Hill, ran great at Region, and won State. Marist finished 9th at Coach Wood in 17:17 and won their Region in 17:16. Could this set up a possible repeat of last year?
After the top 2 teams the field becomes much more open. Flowery Branch appears to be ready to stand inside the fence again. The Branch placed 11th at Coach Wood, 4th at Wendy’s, and easily won Region 8. If any of the above teams has a bad day, there are many other teams ready to claim a podium spot.
Chapel Hill looks solid again after winning Region 5 (16:18) and McIntosh won their tough Region 3 (17:06). Other teams that can challenge include Sequoyah who won Region 7 (17:07), Pope who was 2nd in Region 5 (16:31), Union Grove 2nd in Region 3 (17:23) and Greenbrier who was 2nd in Region 2 (17:31) to Lakeside-Evans.
Three teams that are running well that might make a run at a top five finish include Lakeside-DeKalb, Region Runner-Up to Marist, 7th Coach Wood (after running DeKalb Co Champ), Starr’s Mill 3rd in Region 3 (17:39), and Creekview who was 2nd in Region 7 (17:05). These teams might sneak in and surprise on Saturday.
Other teams trying to make a run into the top ten include: Alexander, Kell, Chattahoochee, Dunwoody, and Habersham Central.
On paper there are so many good boy’s teams, if they run well, can make a jump into the top ten.
Individual
There are several individuals that can capture the individual State title this year. One of the favorites has to be Lakeside-Evans’ Sid Vaughn. Vaughn ran 16:16 for 3rd at Coach Wood, 15:25 at Asics for 2nd, and 1st in Region 2 16:10. Another favorite has to be McIntosh’s Brad Hort. Hort ran 15:57 at Last Chance, won Region 3 16:02, and 16:21 at Fayette Co Champ. Other favorites have to include Pope’s Patrick Fleming (Coach Wood DNF) if he is healthy and Chapel Hill’s Chance Eldredge (16:55 Coach Wood and 1st Region 5 15:43) who appears to be back in great shape. Others in the picture are Greenbrier’s Wilder, Marist’s Thurston, Union Grove’s Smith, and Lee County’s Kennedy.
Girls:
Team
This race is wide open. There are a host of teams that can claim the top spot and many more that can podium. It is going to take a very well-run race to take home hardware on Saturday.
On paper Marist has the advantage. They won their Region (20:33) and finished 8th at Coach Wood. Right behind Marist is Lakeside-Evans. Lakeside-Evans finished 9th at Coach Wood and easily won Region 2 (20:49). Statistically it is almost a dead heat. Do not forget John’s Creek, Lakeside-DeKalb, or Whitewater. John’s Creek finished 1st in Region 7 (20:03) and 2nd at Coach Wood. Lakeside-DeKalb finished 2nd at Region (21:32) and 3rd at Coach Wood after winning the DeKalb Co Champ in the same week. Whitewater won Region 3 (21:17) and have ran well all year.
If any of the above teams fail to bring their best there are several other teams that will drop in and claim a top 5 finish. Union Grove (2nd Region 21:05), East Paulding (1st Region 5 20:00), Dunwoody (3rd Region 21:37), McIntosh (2nd Last Chance, 2nd Fayette Co Champ 21:06, 3rd Region 3 21:22), Winder Barrow (1st Region 8), Flowery Branch (2nd Region 8), Creekview (13th Coach Wood 21:22, 2nd Region 7 20:12), Alexander (2nd Region 5 20:20), and Lambert (5th Coach Wood 21:44,3rd Region 7 20:25).
The above teams should battle it out for a top five-ten spot, but some other teams could break into the top ten. They include Chapel Hill (16th Coach Wood 22:11 and 3rd Region 5 20:16), Starr’s Mill, Evans, South Forsyth, and Pope. This year the 5-15 positions have been very close and watch out for a surprise team to jump into the mix on Saturday.
Individual
This is going to be a great race and might be one of the best all day. On paper the girls are within seconds of each other and this is anyone’s call who will win. Contenders include Marist’s Morgan Ilse who won Region and 19:00 at Great American, Lakesied-Evans’ Sarah Bowles who finished 1st in Region 19:18 and finished 2nd at Coach Wood in 19:20, John Creek’s Allie Buchalski who finished in Region 18:24 and finished 1st at Coach Wood 19:04, Pope’s Molly Schenck who ran 18:31 at Region for 1st and 19:18 to finish 2nd at Coach Wood, Dunwoody’s Alex Cameron who finished 4th at Region 20:38 and won DeKalb Co Champ, McIntosh’s Melanie Hamilt who won Region in 19:20, Union Grove’s Rayna Green who finished 2nd at Region 20:02 and finished 5th at Asics, and Lakeside-DeKalb’s Meghan Wetterhall who finished placed 9th at Region 21:13 and 5th at Coach Wood 20:12.
Others that can race into a top 5 or 10 spot include Southwest DeKalb’s Greciana Cooper, Lambert’s Zimmer, Chapel Hill’s Lord, Winder Barrow’s Cope, East Paulding’s Kidane, and of course Marist’s Northrop. Any of these girls can break into a top spot and watch out for surprises as anyone can jump up and place in this race.