Girls Team Preview
This time last year, most were certain that if Collins Hill’s girls could just arrive safely in Carrollton, the only race left was for second. Indeed, their 19 points and 18:56 team average make the 2008 team arguably the best in Georgia history. But what a difference a year makes. Make no mistake…Collins Hill still fields a very good squad and is squarely in the hunt for their 7th state title in a row, but this year there’s a lot more drama as Gwinnett neighbors Brookwood and North Gwinnett stand ready to challenge. All three teams have had a #1 ranking this year, with North Gwinnett taking the late season edge. Collins Hill seems to have the upper hand in their #’s 1-3, but Brookwood and North Gwinnett bring depth, with both teams sporting 1-5 spreads of less than a minute. Brookwood has won 5 state titles, although none since 1991. North Gwinnett has been very good the last few years but Collins Hill has always been a little better...this would be North Gwinnett’s first title ever.
While the Axis of Power has revolved around Gwinnett County this year, two-time state champions Harrison have quietly gone about their business putting together an outstanding season. Ranked as high as #3 this season, the Lady Hoyas gave Brookwood and Collins Hill a good test at Coach Wood, and are likely candidates for a podium spot. It’s not unreasonable to think they could take home the big prize with a good day.
Although the 4 teams above would be considered the favorites for getting “inside the fence” on Saturday, Walton, Centennial, Roswell and Parkview seem ready to challenge as well. Walton had a consistently strong year and brings the typical Walton depth in the first year of 2nd generation Gower. Centennial was right on their heels at Region 6AAAAA, and seems to be running their best late in the year. Roswell has shown flashes of brilliance and was just a step behind Walton and Centennial last Saturday. Similarly, Parkview slogged through the mud Saturday at River Green and actually gave Brookwood a pretty good race, even though their times don’t show it. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if any of these 4 teams took hardware home from Carrollton.
There’s not much of a gap to the next group of Milton, Etowah, Peachtree Ridge, Chapel Hill and Mill Creek. Crazy things can happen on State Saturday, and this year is ripe for some surprises.
Expect a higher-than-normal winning score in the 90’ish range. 4th place could be 20-25 points out of 1st, and 8th could be another 20 behind that.
Girls Individual
The top 2 places would seem to be pretty good bets, with Collins Hill’s Nicky Akande and Chattahoochee’s Sydney Marshall consistently separating themselves from their competition during their senior campaigns. Akande has to be the favorite, with her only loss this year coming at Great American. Other top-10 candidates are Emily McNutt of Etowah, Heather Morris of Peachtree Ridge, Megan Breitbach of Houston County, Anna Sinclair of North Forsyth, Vicky Winslow/ Sydney Williams/Chloe Whitworth of Collins Hill, Laura Selles/Chelsea Peele of North Gwinnett, Molly Schenck of Pope, Dylan Hassett of Alpharetta, any of Brookwood’s Lopez/Kissell/Egan trifecta, Allison Brackin of Wheeler, Ashton Lord of Chapel Hill, Julianne Kirke of Parkview, Chandelic Jackson of East Paulding, and Kylie Womack/Lena Hamvas of Walton.
Boys Team Preview
Brookwood brings to Carrollton an outstanding resume: 8 prior state titles, a #1 Southeast ranking, and team depth that is outright scary. It’s hard to imagine anyone running with them on Saturday, and they have the potential to score fewer than 60 points which no other team can match. If anyone is to challenge them, it will likely be Collins Hill or Parkview. The Collins Hill squad should have fresh legs, as they’ve run a lighter than normal schedule this year (in terms of # of meets). They have an outstanding group up front but don’t match up – at least on paper -- with Brookwood’s depth. Parkview’s success this year has been a surprise to some, since they graduated a bunch last year, but nevertheless they have stepped up with a very competitive squad. Although not putting up Brookwood-type numbers this year, they have been very close on Collins Hill’s heels. They know how to win, however, and have plenty of hardware from Carrolltons-past to prove it.
Ranked 4th in the final All-Class rankings is Peachtree Ridge. Everyone knows their story from last year when they came in from off the radar screen and stole the show. If they’re able to duplicate that feat this year it would be an even bigger story, but don’t count them out.
Should one of these top 4 teams win on Saturday it will complete Gwinnett County’s decade-long grip on the boys team championship. If the Gwinnett County strangle-hold is to be broken, it will likely be Kell, Walton or Centennial who steals the prize. Kell has been the big mystery team this year, competing at some out-of-the-way (but competitive!) meets with not much fanfare. But Region 6AAAAA showed their hand, and their pack-running strategy puts them right there in the hunt for hardware.
Centennial and Walton finished behind Kell at Region, but both field quality teams with front-runners and solid depth backing them up. Either are viable candidates for podium spots, and line up nicely with Peachtree Ridge and Kell. It’s likely that one of these 4 teams (and probably ONLY one) will be inside the fence on Saturday morning.
On paper, Mill Creek and Chapel Hill would seem to be the only other squads with podium chances. Mill Creek has finished right behind their Peachtree Ridge neighbors all year, but were right on their heels at Gwinnett County and were also within striking distance at Region. Chapel Hill, ranked as high as #4 this year, has maybe the best top 3 in the state with Wade Voyles, Adonis Gaines and Chance Eldredge.
Look for a low winning score, but 20 points could separate 4th place from 8th.
Boys Individual
Grayson’s Kirubel Erassa kicked off the season with a 14:59 at Early Bird and he hasn’t stopped since. Undefeated in his senior season, he would seem to be the clear favorite and seems ripe for a 15:30’ish (or faster!) with the expected cool weather. No one else in 5AAAAA can match that number, but a few sub-16:00 candidates could give Erassa a run for his money if his game is off a bit. Brookwood’s Tyler Anyan started the season slowly but has come on strong lately, appearing to regain the form that brought him a 3200 state title in the spring. Teammate Tommy George will likely be up front also, as will Collins Hills Carlos Galindo. Others in the mix for a top-10 medal should be North Cobb’s Alec Clifford, Wade Voyles, Chance Eldredge and Adonis Gaines of Chapel Hill, Austin Ulich of Chattahoochee, Mike McClay of Dacula, Steven Spevacek and Alec Klassen of Parkview, Ryan Knobbe of Centennial, Matt Weickert of Peachtree Ridge, Phillip Laskey of Walton, Dylan Walker of South Forsyth and Alex Merrall of Etowah.