10/15 Update - I still peg Lakeside as the favorite here. But I like what I've seen from Creekview in recent weeks. While I'm not convinced they've done enough to knock off Lakeside as top dog here, I do think they're progressing more and that by the time we get to state this might be a toss up. Both teams are very good and among the best all class. I can see either one taking home the win, but for now at least I still lean towards Lakeside. For the contenders, I think Pope is still the only team that can challenge for the win, but for now they do look to be on the outside looking in. But they're a pretty safe bet for a podium team and I think history tells us they'll be a strong team at state. I'm just not sure I see them contending for the win. After that your guess is as good as mine in terms of who is stronger between River Ridge, McIntosh, Decatur, and Midtown. My gut tells me it's River Ridge given how many strong team finishes they've had so far this year. But the wild card is Greenbrier, who could look to spoil the party. I feel good about the top 3 all being on the podium somehow, but who the 4th team is who ends up there is definitely up in the air.
The Favorite - Lakeside Dekalb has definitely established themselves as the favorite in this classification. But they are not invincible. So far they've had a heck of a year with several wins under their belt. They have shown no cracks at all and they have the front 3 that all coaches love to have paired with the 4-5 punch that they've got. They've not lost to a 6A competitor yet this year and are rolling strong. But it's too early to completely count out the rest of class 6A in this race.
The Contenders - I think that if Lakeside loses it will probably be because one of these two teams beats them. I won't completely write off any of our chasers at this point in time, but I see these two as the main threats. Pope is fresh off of their dominant win at the Cobb County meet. They feel like a team who is just one runner away from figuring it all out. They've got a good front runner who can compete and then a strong pack at 2-4. If they can find a 5th man, they will definitely challenge for the win. Maybe there is one waiting in the wings to help them leapfrog to the top of the standings. Creekview is also in a similar boat, I'm just not sure they have as much upside as Pope. It's early and I could be reading the tea leaves incorrectly, but that's just the feeling in my gut right now. Either way both teams have gone head to head against Lakeside already this year and the Vikings walked away with fairly decisive victories. Maybe things change in October, but right now I see these two battling for the runner up spot.
The Chasers - At least one of these teams is going to walk away with a trophy from Carrollton, and we could see more than one do that. I think River Ridge is the most likely based on recent results. They looked very strong at the Warpath Invitational and that could help them separate from the rest of the chasers. Maybe they belong in the contender tier, but I'd like to see one more good race from them first. The rest of our contenders are harder to sort out. I think I'd put Decatur as the next most dangerous, but that's more based on history than anything. Lassiter is having a good year, and so is Greenbrier, so maybe it's one of them. I'm certainly not ready to count out Clarke Central yet given their recent success as well, and their ability to show up strong at the state meet. You've also got Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Gainesville, and McIntosh roughly even with this bunch. It's anybody's guess who will emerge victorious in November.
10/15 Update - I feel good about Pope as the favorite. I think they may have extended their lead on the rest of the field in the last few weeks. The main thing that's changed is that Creekview is also a threat to challenge Pope along with Johns Creek. But ultimately, I just don't know if anybody can handle Pope when they're on. They're the defending champions for a reason and I think the most likely scenario is they add another ring this year. Johns Creek and Creekview are similar. I think Johns Creek looks slightly stronger but Creekview is gaining steam. This could go either way on race day. The battle for the final podium spot appears to be between Lakeside and Milton, with both teams fairly even. But McIntosh is also in the mix here now after a strong showing at twilight. I think it would take a lot for any of these teams to break into the top 3, or any off day from the teams above. But hey, anything can happen at state.
The Favorites - Stop me if you've heard this one before - Pope girls are favored to win state. But, there's a catch. I'm going to say there are two favorites here. The main reason is because there's a big gap after 2 and I don't want to say there's one favorite and one contender. I still see Pope as the favorite, but I really like what we've seen out of Johns Creek this year and I think they can challenge them for the win. Pope is certainly in the been there, done that situation. But newcomers are dangerous. And let's not forget that I didn't even predict Johns Creek to finish on the podium last year, yet they finished runner up in a fairly decent upset. So, with that in mind, this team race is definitely on upset watch. Pope is still leading the way with a dangerous top 3 and a really strong 4-6. That's the type of team that usually does well at state. But Johns Creek has a similar pack of runners that are lurking close behind them. This one could get interesting as we get going this year.
The contenders - These teams are definitely harder to sort out right now. I'm not seeing anybody truly separating from the pack. But if I had to pick, I really like what we've seen from Lakeside Evans. I think they could be the most likely to make it on the podium. Besides them, Milton and Creekview are both pretty solid and have the runners capable of getting the job done. But there's only room for 2 more beside sour favorites, and River Ridge would like to go home with some hardware as well.
The Chasers - Lassiter is leading the chase in terms of best of the rest. They could easily be considered a contender, but for now I'll leave them as a chaser. I'd like to see a little more before they make that jump. Decatur, Alpharetta, and McIntosh are known names in this group so it wouldn't surprise me to see them rise up through the ranks as the season goes on. And Woodstock also looks pretty strong and could make a push late in the season.