If you failed to recruit enough freshmen one year, can you make up for it the following year by recruiting more sophomores? Whereas new sophomores can help immensely, they typically do not develop as much as those who had a year-long head start. Note in the graphs below that the runners who start their xc careers as freshmen are far more likely to run sub-16:30 (podium teams) and sub-17:00 (non-podium teams) than those who began as their careers as sophomores.
Given that a runner now needs to run sub-16:30 to help deliver a state championship in the larger classifications, the above graphs suggest that it usually takes 2-3 new sophomores to replace each freshman you failed to recruit in the previous year.
In addition to the above evidence that runners develop more if they begin their careers as Freshmen, there is additional evidence below that teams are more likely to do well at state if they recruit freshmen as opposed to sophomores. Note that the top quartile of AAAAA teams at the 2010 state meet (red markers) tend to be on the right side of the graph (more freshmen). Teams in the middle quartiles (yellow and green markers) tend to be on the top side of the graph (more sophomores). Teams that did not recruit either freshmen or sophomores (blue markers at bottom left of graph) tend to finish in the bottom quartile at state.
It is complicated to identify a benchmark on this metric. After all, the benchmark team should recruit sophomores in addition to freshmen rather than instead of freshmen. If I had to pick a benchmark school, I would probably choose Parkview, who appear to be adding 5-6 new sophomores each year in addition to the plethora of prior year’s freshmen they typically return.