Girls 7A XC Preview
Featured below are the pre-season 7A rankings for the girls. Much of the top talent in GA was lost due to a strong graduating senior class. Mix that with the always unpredictable freshman sensation that always surprises us on the girls' side, and these rankings should definitely be taken with a grain of salt as it's much tougher to predict than the boys. Also, way fewer girls raced the 16/32 combo than the boys, so I put more emphasis in the 1600 than the 3200. What I can say is that the chase for the top of the podium (and the podium in general) will be a tight one as teams 1-4 could all make a case for being pre-season #1.
West Forsyth
West Forsyth enters the 2016 XC season as the favorite (on paper) to win the title. Led by the dynamic duo of Reagan Poteet (5:11/11:38) and Liz Galarza (5:17/10:58), West has two girls who will be top 10 threats. They also return three girls who broke 5:40 for the 1600 (Luskus @ 5:31, MacArthur @ 5:34, and Harrison @ 5:36). I don't see a 'ton' of depth, however, and they appear improved from last year's XC team. It remains to be seen if their improvement from track season translates to the XC course.
Mill Creek
The defending 6A champs look poised to threaten for the title again as they return three strong athletes from that team in Camryn Petit (5:14/11:01/18:58 5K avg), Sara Scales (5:36/11:41/20:05) and Olivia Fuller (5:36/12:13/20:20). The Lady Hawks match up well with West Forsyth, but the difference seems to be in their #2 runner, so it appears MC will need to work on the gap to Petit to catch West Forsyth. On the other hand, MC seems to have a little more depth, so it should be interesting to see them challenge.
South Forsyth
South Forsyth could easily contend for the title as these three teams (and Brookwood too - see below) return some serious talent. Leading the way for South is the 3rd best runner in 6A from last season, Kaylee DuPont (5:06/10:59/18:38 5K avg) who, on paper, is the favorite to win the title this year. South also returns three additional athletes who broke 5:30 (Bergey @ 5:19, de Castro @ 5:26, and Teeter @ 5:27). These numbers tell a different story than when crunching their 5K averages from last season which ranks them 7th (obviously not the best measure due to course difficulty, competition, etc.), but what they do say is South Forsyth's girls have begun stepping up and filling the holes that graduating talent has left behind, and they should terrify the two teams ranked above them.
Brookwood
The Lady Broncos are another team who could easily contend for the championship. Lauren Flynt (5:06/11:00/18:48) and Mackenzie Ellison (5:03/20:38) lead the way. Brookwood also has two returning girls at sub 5:35 (Gatland @ 5:31 and Saliba @ 5:32) along with sisters Rachel and Renee Silver who have both broken 5:50. Coach Carter's girls will try to follow up their 6th place State finish from last year by contending for the championship in the inaugural 7A State Championship which appears to have four legit contenders.
Lambert
The Lady Longhorns didn't even qualify for State last year, but their track season shows that they're fixing that problem. While they don't have a true front runner, they do return three girls who broke 5:30 in the 1600 and 2/3 of them broke 12:00 for the 3200 (McKenna @ 5:25/11:55, O'Neal @ 5:27/11:49, and Schwind @ 5:27/12:24). They also have four additional girls who ran 5:50 or faster, so it shows that they have some depth which could present a problem to any of the above teams who falter. They may not contend for the W this year, but this season will serve as great experience for these girls as the vast majority of them return for next season.
Woodstock
Woodstock returns a solid squad led by two sub 5:20 runners in Brynne Sumner (5:12) and a much improved Brittany Burnett (5:19). Two more solid returners in Bailey (5:36) and Everest (5:45) will chip in to attempt to make Woodstock a podium contender. This up and coming program may also be one year away from true contention, but they will do some damage this year.
Milton
The numbers suggest that Milton had a relatively poor track season (considering their returners, of course). Marie Repasy leads the charge and returns as the #6 overall finisher from last year's State XC Championship. Milton only had three girls break 5:35 in track season though (Repasy @ 5:28, Aumer @ 5:25, Bowers @ 5:33), and it appears that several of their returners outside their top 3 didn't do track, making their ranking tough to pinpoint. Either way, Milton rounded out the podium last season and are well-coached, so it wouldn't surprise me to see them move their way up this list when the first official rankings come out.
Walton
Similar to Milton, a couple of key runners for Walton didn't run track, namely Kate Richards (20:14 5K avg putting her 20th on the list). Leading their track season was Abigail Robertson (5:19/11:42) giving Walton a decent top 2 athletes on paper. Allison Mitchell and Stephanie L'Estrange both broke 12:10 in the 3200m though, and Walton does return 5/7 of their State team from last season that finished 12th.
North Gwinnett
The Lady Bulldogs are another team tough to peg as their top returner from track, Lyndsey Fowler, only broke 22:00 once in XC. Three of their top returners from last season didn't run track, and all of them averaged under 21:10 (Jones @ 20:54, Friedman @ 20:51, Anderson @ 21:09). If North can put all of these pieces together, they could prove to be a pretty dangerous team.
Peachtree Ridge
Similar to their boys, The "Ridge Chicks" have a front runner but lack the depth to be true contenders this season. Mary Kathryn Knott (5:17/11:30/20:07) leads the way followed by three other returners who broke 6:00 for the 1600. Two of their top returners also didn't run track (Galanti @ 21:39 and Roy @ 21:40 for 5K average), so they are similar to their Gwinnett counterparts in that regard.
Watch List:
Marietta: Marietta returns two girls who broke both 5:30 and 12:00 (Hall @ 5:26 and Miller @ 5:27) along with Henderson @ 5:40, but it drops off dramatically after that. They don't have a 5th runner who broke 6:00 for the 1600 and only have three total girls who broke 12:40 for the 3200. Similar to teams on the bottom end of the top 10, Marietta has some potential to move up if they put the pieces together, but for now, they're on the outside.
Parkview: The Lady Panthers are a big question mark as they enter the 2016 XC season. They lose Melody Weiler to other ventures but gain Leah Disher who finished 3rd in the 800m in State Track. Also, two of their top returners (Freeman and Franklin) couldn't finish their XC season last year due to injury. They have the talent to move into the top 10 assuming they can stay healthy.
