MileSplit GA

On paper in AAAAA, it looks like this with team scores. This never happens, but I would watch out for Luella and Westlake most definitely. Luella has a ton of speed. If someone can steal a few points in the field events, it's going to affect Luella. Westlake has a great mix of speed and mid-distance. I wouldn't count Brookwood out just yet, either. Coffee is going to really almost completely on one athlete and hope their discus thrower can climb a spot or two.

Good luck to everyone. I expect we will see some sprint records fall.

Luella 43
Westlake 41
Brookwood 33
Coffee 33
Hillgrove 32
McEachern 31
MLK 29
PTR 29
Wheeler 28
Campbell 25
Roswell 25
Mill Creek 23
Walton 23
North Gwinnett 21
Dacula 15
Lassiter 15
Marietta 14
Norcross 13
Bradwell 12
North Cobb 12
Tift 12
Harrison 11
Langston Hughes 11
Newton 11
Valdosta 11
East Coweta 10
Stephenson 9
Parkview 7
Camden 6
Collins Hill 6
Lowndes County 6
Johnson-Savannah 5
K. Mountain 5
Milton 4
North Forsyth 4
Centennial 3
Etowah 3
South Gwinnett 2
Woodstock 1

I had
Brookwood: 48
P. Ridge: 44
Luella: 41
Westlake: 34
MLK: 31
McEachern: 31
Wheeler: 30

BW and PR need to establish big leads over the others on days 1&2 if they are going to hold off the others. I suspect at least one of them will do so, particularly since they are strong in many of the same events. If one struggles, the other will get even more points than what I predicted above.

@Dataholic,

I simply took performance lists (I know, I know--some people only ran to "qualify"), so that is where my numbers came from.

As I said before, do not count out Brookwood. Coach Kelley is carrying on a strong tradition and they exceeded expectations two seasons ago when they won it all.

@dataholic

How do you project the AAAAA 1600 and 3200? The 1600 is a can't miss. I go with Brickell by less than 0.5 seconds over Malanoski and a hard-charging Yoonis. He will need to push the pace; if the first 800 is too slow, Yoonis, Miller, Sullivan, and maybe Littig could all be very strongly in the mix.

I think Brickell wins the 3200 relatively easily - 8 to 10 seconds - but it is difficult to project a race when a few of the favorites have not pushed it hard all season.

@ExcelOrator

I projected each event by the PR's of the qualifiers. That will obviously underestimate the points from someone who may not have pushed it hard all year, but I couldn't think of a better way to do it. The 1600 should be very interesting. Places 3-14 may only be separated by a handful of seconds.

ExcelOrator

@dataholic
I think Brickell wins the 3200 relatively easily - 8 to 10 seconds - but it is difficult to project a race when a few of the favorites have not pushed it hard all season.

@ExcelOrator

I find this comment very interesting if you are suggesting more than one AAAAA kid. Evidence shows Brickell has not put forth an all effort since Coaches Invite. If it applies to others you have to wonder why they would give up an entire season for this one race. Very risky approach.

@dataholic et al,

After yesterday, Peachtree Ridge "lost" 4 points, although both finishes for 2nd in the 1600m and PV are certainly strong. They could get two points back in the 3200m since Brickell is seeded #2, and their 300mH could be interesting if their kid can make the finals and score a little higher than projected.

Westlake "lost" 3 points in the TJ and "lost" 4 in the HJ and "lost" 1 in the 1600m. They may be out of contention in terms of top three now.

Coffee gaines 1 point in the discus, so they are spot on to finish high if Hill can double in the 100/200.

Brookwood "lost" 2 points in the HJ (potentially more with only one jumper scoring), "lost" 4 in the discus, but gained 3 back in the 1600m. They still have a shot.

Luella gained 2 points in the PV.

Today will at least give a semblance to what is going to happen.

As for the lower classes, how about Westover getting it done in the field? If they have anything on the track, Carrolton and Drew may have some competition.