What should you do if you are a new xc coach and want to win the state championship this year? Chances are that boat sailed three years ago when your predecessor failed to attract enough freshmen onto the team. Without exception, the 2010 championship teams had as large or larger incoming freshman class (in ’07) than any other team in their classification.
|
|
AAAAA |
AAAA |
AAA |
AA |
A |
|||||
|
2010 |
team |
# '07 |
team |
# '07 |
team |
# '07 |
team |
# '07 |
team |
# '07 |
|
1st |
BW |
24 |
Mar |
8 |
SPX |
5 |
West |
11 |
Wes |
6 |
|
2nd |
PV |
16 |
CH |
7 |
NH |
4 |
Lovett |
8 |
AC |
3 |
|
3rd |
PR |
3 |
FB |
7 |
Wood |
4 |
CK |
0 |
MPC |
3 |
|
4th |
CH |
9 |
McI |
5 |
WH |
5 |
BT |
4 |
Gall |
2 |
If this relationship holds and each team stays in its current classification, we can already predict the state champions(below) through 2013 and will soon be able to make 2014 predictions.
Predicted Future Champs Based on Freshman Class Size:
|
|
AAAAA |
AAAA |
AAA |
AA |
A |
|
2011 |
Brookwood |
Chapel Hill |
St.Pius |
Westminster |
Wesleyan |
|
2012 |
Brookwood |
Chapel Hill |
North Hall |
Westminster |
Galloway |
|
2013 |
Brookwood |
Flowery Branch |
St.Pius |
Westminster |
Athens Christian |
I don’t expect all of the above teams will be state champs in the predicted year, but these nine schools are likely to win more state championships over the next three years than all of the other teams in the state combined. The reason that they are likely to win championships is that they are winning the game of getting more freshmen onto their respective teams.
This will be the first article in a benchmarking series about managing key metrics to improve your xc team. The most important metrics appear to be the rates at which a team attracts both total freshmen and elite freshmen (which I am defining as having a PR < 20:00) into their program. These rates are highly correlated with one another, probably because the best way to get a whole lot of elite freshmen is to attract a whole lot of total freshmen and then to cull out the ones with potential from the larger group.
We can normalize these metrics by dividing the number of freshmen on the team by the size of the size of the freshman class at that particular school, thus allowing A and AA schools to be measured against AAAAA schools. In each of the five classifications, the championship teams “outrecruited” the other podium teams and the podium teams outrecruited the rest of the state. (In this case recruiting means attracting freshmen to participate and not convincing the fastest middle schoolers at the Peachtree Road Race to enroll at your school.)
The graph below shows the five 2010 state champions (in red), the other podium teams (in blue) and the average for the rest of the state in yellow. If you want to win, you probably need to be at least as far “northeast” on this graph as are your competitors. Note that Athens Christian (AC) is just a far northeast as is Wesleyan; however, with Wesleyan being roughly twice the size of AC, AC has a greater degree of difficulty.
I can only speculate about how successful coaches might convince fourteen year olds that running 5-10 miles per day would be fun; however, the bottom line is that unless you are getting more than 5% of the entire class of freshmen boys to try out for the cross country team (and getting 2% of the class to run under 20:00), you are unlikely to win state three years later when those same boys are seniors.
I am hoping this might stimulate some discussion amongst the coaches so that many teams can attract more runners and improve the overall competition level in Georgia. Even for those who are attracting the most guys and winning championships can improve. After all, every coach in the state never sees 84% or more of his potential recruits.
Data below is from the classes of 2011, 2012, and 2013:
Total freshmen attraction rate (as % of entire freshmen class)
State championship teams: 7.9%, 2nd-4th place teams: 3.6%, rest of state: 1.5%, Benchmark (Wesleyan): 15.5% Public school benchmark (Brookwood): 6.3%
Elite (sub 20:00 PR) freshmen attraction rate (as % of entire freshmen class)
State championship teams: 3.7%, 2nd-4th place teams: 1.8%, rest of state: 0.4%, Benchmark (Westminster): 6.3%, Public school benchmarks (Chapel Hill & Flowery Branch): 2.9%