Does anyone wonder why Gwinnett schools have won the last thirteen state championships in the state’s largest classification? One explanation could be that there is some sort of a superior gene pool there; however, a more logical explanation is that the state’s seven largest schools are all in that county. Further evidence can be found in that all of the thirteen largest classification state champions this millennium have come from the ranks of the current list of the twelve largest schools. The three largest schools in the state have all finished on the podium in each of the past two years.
That is not to say that smaller schools have no chance to win. Marist has proven time and time again that a smaller school can compete in a larger classification. Marietta and Wesleyan both finished second in their respective classifications despite being relatively small compared to their best competitors. These schools more than make up for their lack of size with high participation rates, but many schools have difficulty duplicating that.
Two years ago I did not study school size (relative to others in the classification) as a factor for cross country success, but it most likely was important then and definitely is important now. Of the 32 programs designated as dynasties or contenders, 25 were in the top half of their classification when ranked by population. The median dynasty/contender school was 18th in size relative to its classification. For the AAAAAA and A classifications, where there is more variation in size within the classification, the larger schools have a huge advantage. If Mill Creek gets 5% of the freshman boys out to the team, they get about 17 freshmen each year. Conversely, a small AAAAAA school would only get 9 freshmen boys on the team if they recruit that same 5% of the class.
School size is obviously not something that a coach has much control over. Few cross country coaches have the luxury of entertaining offers from various schools. For the most part, they have to play the hand that is dealt to them. The point here is that those at the smaller end of each classification have a tougher job to do. They have to get an even larger fraction of the class out for their team than do their counterparts at the larger end of the same classification. If you are coaching at a smaller school and the larger schools in your classification are recruiting 5% of their freshman class onto the team, you should be trying to recruit 10% of your freshman class.
The good news for smaller schools is that even though size matters, it only explains about 17% of the variation in performance (see graph). That means that 83% of the variation can be explained by factors other than school size (recruitment rate, runner development, and retention rate for instance).