For the 2012 study, I studied all classifications except A-public (too little data). I divided programs into three categories: dynasty, contender, and also-ran. Dynasty programs (Wesleyan, Westminster, St. Pius, Marist and Brookwood) are programs that have won multiple state championships over the past four years. There is usually only room for one dynasty program in each classification. It remains to be seen which program emerges as the dynasty program in AAAAA and A-private. It will also be interesting to see if Mill Creek will replace Brookwood as the AAAAAA dynasty program. At the moment, there are two dynasty programs in AA, and there is probably only room for one.
Contender programs are programs with multiple podium appearances in the past four years. In the years when a given classification’s dynasty program fails to capture the title, it is usually a contender program that does. When one program replaces another as the dynasty program in a classification, the new dynasty program usually comes from the ranks of contender programs.
Also-ran programs are programs that have been on the podium at most once (usually not at all) in the past four years (even if that once was a championship). About 90% of the programs in Georgia are currently in this group. Occasionally, also-ran programs will win a state championship, but their odds are not good. If an also-ran program wants to win a state championship, they should first strive to become a contender.
Note from the table below that disparities between dynasty, contender, and also-ran programs with respect to runner development and retention are small. The problem for the also-ran programs is that they cannot afford to be “close” to their competitors in these metrics when they have fallen so far behind them in recruiting. Contender programs have about twice as many runners as do also-ran programs, and dynasty programs have about twice as many runners as do contender programs.
Not only do the stronger programs recruit a larger percentage of their student bodies, but their student bodies are larger to begin with. The difference between contender and dynasty programs is almost entirely a numbers game. A typical dynasty program is among the largest in its classification, gets 10% of its large classes out for the team as freshmen as supplements that with an additional 5% of the sophomore class who did not run as freshmen. Contender programs tend to be somewhat smaller schools and then only get 4% of the freshman class and 3% of the sophomore class as new sophomores, leaving them with a stable of fewer than half the runners that dynasty programs enjoy. The also-ran programs are usually even smaller schools and recruit an even smaller fraction of their student body.
|
|
dynasty |
contender |
also-ran |
|
freshman recruiting (% of class on team) |
10.6% |
4.1% |
1.5% |
|
runner development (yr/yr progress towards 14:30) |
15.2% |
15.7% |
12.8% |
|
school size (median rank w/in classification) |
10th |
20th |
31st |
|
retention rate (# of juniors who were on team 2 years ago/# of freshman on team 2 years ago) |
69% |
71% |
67% |
|
sophomore recruiting (# of soph on team who did not run prior year/soph class size) |
4.7% |
3.4% |
2.1% |